Royals Nightly

I've Moved (Inelegant Title I Know)

2005-05-13T22:29:00.000-05:00

One chapter ends, another begins.

Awhile back Blez from Athletics Nation emailed me about joining a new network of baseball bloggers and being the Royals affiliate...

And now, in mid-May, its finally come to fruition, and I've started working over at Royals Review. Basically, the content and bitterness of Royals Nightly will just be moving to a new domain name. Moreover, the new site is formatted a little differently, and is more interactive. We'll see how it all turns out.

Its been amazing to watch this site spread its roots across the web, and I'm a little sad to start over with that process. Getting 11,2-- something hits in the past year or so has been, well, pretty neat, as has the chance to talk to my fellow Royals and baseball fans.

I must admit I'm a little sad to move on, but the vagaries of blogger make it a little easier. Royals Review is just starting up, and I'm still doing the grunt work of setting up the blogroll etc, but please do stop by, and post yourself.

Once again: www.royalsreview.com

Thanks to everyone for making this as fun as it was, and I hope to see you across the street...

Pena Out?

2005-05-10T23:47:00.000-05:00

Insane, pointless and meaningless. It will have no effect on the team's play. Look, I'm no believer in the major league manager as it is, beyond offering quotes to the media and ordering the obligatory (read mindless) sac bunt in the 7th inning, its a over-rated position. Unlike in football or basketball, theres really no concept of a "play", other than the aformentioned one-run strategies, which are 1) usually detrimental anyway and 2) so ingrained in baseball culture that it is hardly a real decision anyway.

A manager's main job is to handle the pitching satff, which on this team means not letting Zach Greinke get hurt. I guess Pena did OK in that regard.

Clearly, if he quits its probably because he wants a shot to manage somewhere else, keeping that winning percentage reasonably non-horrible. Which it isn't.

Believe.

Game 31- Royals 10, Orioles 8 (8-23)

2005-05-09T00:49:00.000-05:00

The Royals find ways to lose, ways to strand runners, surrender runs, blow leads and get blown out. Today they did all their normal bad stuff, but still had enough good things happen to win the game.

Matt Stairs is still alive?

Teahen had a good game?

Burgos didn't blow the lead?

Whaaaat?

Its been an insane few weeks for me, and its reflected in the lack of posts. I'm just praying for 35 more wins from this team, and for Calvin Pickering to get another chance.

Bad Harvey, bad.

But what a start Mike's having... looks like he might have one more power-spike in him after all.

Now 8-8 Game

2005-05-08T14:56:00.000-05:00

Nice.

Real f---ing nice.

Kansas City, better start reading up on those 2003 Tigers, theres gonna be alot of comparison pieces here in the next few months.

Game 28- Sox 2, Royals 1 (7-21) [This is a curse from God]

2005-05-05T15:40:00.000-05:00

Look, I said it two days ago, the White Sox just aren't going to lose any one-run games this year. This is all part of a curse from God which is set to punish the world with an affirmation of Kenny Williams-Ozzie, which might be the most arrogant GM-Manager combo in recent memory.

Childish squabbles with the press? Check.
Stabbing former players in the back, for no reason? Check.
Bizarre, unearned self-importance? Check.
Unjustified worship of "little ball" as false justification for salary dumps and winning close games due to great pitching against bad AL Central offenses? Check.

There was literally no way the Royals could win this game, especially with Greinke on the hill. I honest to God would have bet all the money I owned that Greinke would lose by one or two runs today, probably due to a late bully collapse, and lo and behold it happened.

It was petrifying, but with each additional scoreless inning, it became _more_ apparent that the Royals would lose. That is just what happens when cheerleader boy is on the hill.

So, the curse of White Sox success continues. Carlos Lee will be burned in effigy tomorrow night at the Cell, with proceeds donated to Scooter Podsednik's retirement fund and an evening at Scores.

Game 26- White Sox 5, Royals 4 (7-19)

2005-05-04T10:07:00.000-05:00

It sure looked like the Royals were gonna win this one, but the White Sox are this year's unreasonably lucky team, which is a curse from God forcing us to endure an endless summer of worship for little ball (despite it having very little to do with their success), borderline unethical Magglio-backstabbing and mor eridiculous quotes from Ozzie. And, just at the exact moment that Sisco starts to get some national publicity, he goes and shows that he's human after all.

Ohh well, better luck tomorrow.

After last night's explosion Sweeney's now hitting .311/.363/.563, which has to be his highest line in about two and half years. Its good to see, especially given how weirdly maligned Mike's been the past few seasons, and honestly I hope he has a monster first-half and gets traded to the Dodgers at the deadline.

BA even threw in 6 innings of adequate baseball, lowering his season ERA to 6.91. He did well to only surrender 3 runs, and perhaps he'll start to turn it around as well.

The White Sox just aren't going to lose 1-run games this year, and even a Shingo appearance couldn't help the Royals.

Ohh, and congrats to Swingin' Ken for coming back down to Earth... don't let that cleanup-slot role go to your head.

Some Early Stats

2005-05-03T00:22:00.000-05:00

Strange win yesterday, to say the least. Congrats to Swingin' Ken on his grand slam, although I'm still bitter about how things went down with Pickering. Then there was the whole matter of Lima-Time's no-hitter, which quickly became a 5-5 game. And everything wrapped up with a save from Burgos.

Just a strange game.

Without further ado, an early look at some stats:

Baseball Prospectus runs a nifty little playoff-odds report. Its pure novelty this early in the season, but come August it'll be a daily necessity. The feature debuted in the fall of 2003, just as the Royals were blowing the biggest All-Star break lead in history.

Right now, through 100 simulations, the Royals are somehow managing 63 wins. How this is happening, I have no idea. Probably the cumulative effect of all the presumably weak AL Central teams.

According to BP's defensive efficiency stats the Royals have the third worst defense in the American league, behind the Red Sox and Yankees.

(Of course, those teams can score runs.)

Joe McEwing now has more ABs this year than Calvin Pickering.

Mike Sweeney's .290/.345/.490 line is above average for an AL first baseman, who on average is .272/.347/.432. (Thats it? Damn.)

As a team, the Royals are hitting .238/.296/.378, which places them 27th in BA, 29th in OBP, 24th in SLG.

After the run explosion in the last two games, the Royals have scored 93 runs, good for 27th best in baseball. (Although being ahead of Oakland by one run, and Cleveland by two runs, after scoring 17 in two games isn't exactly heartening.)

On the mound, the Royals are actually making some strides, which is somewhat masked by the terrible defense.

The teams's K/9 rate is up to 6.04 (19th), which relative to the league is much better than last season's D.A.R.Y.L., Gobble and BA fueled refusal-to-strikeout rotation. The Royals are a respectable 22nd in K/BB ratio, at 1.67, 27th in team ERA at 5.08. The ERA seems a little high for the team's BAA allowed and OPS allowed (both in the low 20s for rank), so its possible it might come down a little as the season progresses.

On the base-paths the Royals have been predictably terrible, posting a horrendous 52% success rate on stolen base attempts. (Remember, you need to be around 66% to break even on the risk/reward.)

Finally, the Royals are 27th in walk-rate, but amazingly 14th in pitches per plate appearance.

Game 24- Royals 9, Indians 1 (6-18)

2005-04-30T23:03:00.000-05:00

Wow. I should hate on Harvey every night. Swingin' Ken isn't hitting an empty .333 anymore: he's now hitting .429 with a homer, and one of the biggest hits of the season.

After Swingin' Ken's salami, Eli Marrero added two homers himself (sorta a waste, but I'll take it)... a nice 9-1 cruise job for the Royals.

And hey, Bautista finally put it all together for an entire start: 6IP 5H, 1ER, 1BB and 5Ks.

Hello 6th win.

Game 23- Indians 6, Royals 0 (5-18)

2005-04-29T23:35:00.000-05:00

The Royals could only muster 2 singles, a double by Grimace and two walks tonight, sealing another inevitable loss before tens of excited fans on a cold night in Cleveland.

I wonder if Greinke's already given up? He hasn't looked terribly sharp lately, but then again, why should he care; unless he gives up -1 runs he can't win.

From the very beginning, I've had a lingering concern that Greinke doesn't strike out enough batters to ever reach true dominance (insert Greg Maddox counter-example now) and in front of a defense as bad as this one, all those balls-in-play can become a problem.

Hey everyone- K-Harvey's hitting an empty .333!!! Whooo-hooo he realy is an All-Star. Now Bob Dutton can sleep at night, knowing the evil Pickering has been properly disposed of.

Drawing nearer to the 2003 Tigers with each passing day.

Well, Now I'm Reassured

2005-04-29T10:33:00.000-05:00

From ESPN.com:

Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire bristled when someone suggested the Royals might be headed for record-loss territory.

"I think the Kansas City Royals are doing a lot of good things over there," he said. "They have a heck of a young ballclub over there with some very good players, and some talented pitchers. As that group comes together it's going to be a very good baseball team. I wouldn't start talking about that club losing a lot of ballgames."

Apparently, the whole "they could not win 44 games" thing is gathering steam. Just remember where you heard it first.

Game 21- Twins 9, Royals 4 (5-16)

2005-04-27T22:54:00.000-05:00

Theres a strange persistence to this team, only in reverse: they never fail to let you down. And ohh, ohh the variety. Some nights, a 2-1, 3-2 nailbiting loss, others, a 9-7 error-fest, or a nice 9-4 semi-blowout like tonight.

It was nice to see DeJesus back in the lineup and having a decent game. Of course, he had to throw in another caught-stealing. PLus, there was that flurry of excitment in the bottom of the 6th when the Royals tied 'er up at 4-4.

Shawn Camp, a Royals Nightly favorite in 2004, came into a not-so-bad situation and 1)hit Shannon Stewart 2) allowed a run on a wild pitch 3) allowed a triple.

Nice.

Well at least the triple made the wild-pitch seem less damaging.

Theres a certain stupidness in arguing the lineup of a team this bad, but if Matt Diaz is worth his weight on a major league roster, then as a left-fielder he shouldn't be hitting 9th. And I don't care if Joe McEwing handles the bat well (in a non-hitting sense) in no imaginable universe should he be hitting second. Just put Sweeney there for all I care, he's got a slightly better chance of getting a fifth AB, and if the goal is driving in David DeJ, then just cut out McEwing's inevitable free-out (in the first inning!) and get on with it.

I'm amazed with a first-inning run-one strategy for a team thats dead-last in the AL in runs. Its a solution that only worsens the disease...

Ohh well, at least Super Joe got to do something well, probably further insuring his mythical quest for an out of nowhere run at 400 outs.

Believe.

The Terms Have Shifted

2005-04-25T16:22:00.000-05:00

I began this season expecting utter failure from this team: they wouldn't be competitive on a large scale, and there would be numerous individual performances and single games that would stand as almost unwatchable. Well, thats happened.

However, the goal, or rather, the guiding approach was one seeking redemption. Namely, an attitude of "yea, we're going to be horrible, but there might be some good things that come out of this mess, things we can build on".

Basically, the optimistic approach to any bad, sorta young team.

The terms have shifted now.

2003 Detroit Tigers.

43 wins, 119 loses. A .265 winning percentage.

Honestly, and I don't mean to panic, thats where this team is headed. Thats the new theme, tone and approach to this team. Despite some theoretically bright spots on the pitching staff (more on that later), this is one of the worst teams to take the field in the last 25 years.

And I think the record will reflect that.

The Royals current record is 5-14 (.263%) and they've basically been injury-free, save for an injury to their heroic Closer, which means almost nothing to a team that has a lead in the 9th about once a fortnight. Further, other than this weekend series with the White Sox, there haven't been too many close games, or too many weird games. They just can't win.

Mainly because they absoluetly cannot score runs.

As with last season's oh-fense, there isn't a single thing this team is good at. They don't hit for average well, in fact, they hit for average really f---ing poorly. Of course, they don't draw walks, or even really take pitches. As goes without saying, there's no power on the team, and doubles are a divine occurance.

They don't play little ball well, they play it poorly.

The team is slow.

The defense is terrible.

The pitching staff consists of Zack Greinke's using up his Royals service time for no good reason and a bunch of guys with imaginable upside.

It isn't about seeing the positive anymore. Not this year.

Its about winning 42 games.

Lets see: you know Sweeney's gonna get hurt, the team's already given up on Pickles, probably for good, Pena's got a few more idiotic in-game decisions in him, Joe McEwing will end up with 400 at-bats, Angel Berroa will hit the DL again, the team will lose all interest by May 25, the K will be a mausoelum, etc etc.

Worse still, the White Sox hot start means they won't be tearing down their roster in July, which may make the Twins actually improve at midseason, as well as possibly the Tigers or Indians... all more losses for the Royals.

The terms with which we must evaluate this season have shifted, the new goal is simple:

Lets not be the worst team ever!

Game 18- White Sox 3, Royals 2 (5-13)

2005-04-23T21:35:00.000-05:00

Just another amazingly horrible game by the Royals, sweetened only by the fact that Greinke wasn't saddled with a nominal "L" at the end of the game.

Matt Diaz wanted to win the game so badly that he twice did his damndest to lose it, and he did on the second time. First, he blew through a stop sign in the bottom of the ninth, and headed home, only to realize he would easily be out before heading back to third. Then, on the very next real pitch (Graffy had been intentionally walked) he tried to score on a wild-pitch/passed ball.

Of course he was out.

So essentially, he made it dramatically plain that he had absolutely failed to learn any sort of lesson, failed to gain any level of insight, or any increase in game intelligence from his reprieve two minutes before.

According to years of data, with the bases loaded at 1 out, you have a 65% chance of scoring a run (or more, though not applicable here). With 2nd and 3rd and 2 outs, the percentage drops down to about 32%.

Wonderful decision Matt.

Naturally, Marrerro couldn't drive home anyone with two outs, and complying with the nearly 100% odds of it occuring, Mac surrendered the obligatory game-losing run in the 10th. Complete with falsely important hustle/drama/moxie of Pier----i going first to third.

This is why we can't have nice things.

Little ball rules.

Except it actually doesn't, as Diaz had proved the inning before.

A horrific loss.

[As goes without saying, I'm saddened by the loss of Pickering, cementing this team's miracle run at scoring like 300 runs total for this season. Warning Track Power has a nice writeup of the call-down... ]

Game 16- Twins 10, Royals 9 (5-11)

2005-04-21T23:26:00.000-05:00

Well, you get the idea (see below). Utterly terrible loss for the Royals. Everything that could have been a positive became a negative. Emil Brown breaks out of slump, has homered and is up with two men on and no outs? Better have him bunt. This is the worst offense in baseball of course, so the best way to score runs is to give up even more outs freely.

Idiot-ball.

John Buck's having his best game of the season, is 4-4 with a homer, I better take the bat out of his hand by making the third out of the inning by trying to steal third??

Absolute imbecility by Berroa.

And, fittingly, Mac blew the save in the 9th, and the Twins won in the 10th. There was only about a 80% chance of that happening, although I guess theres a small moral victory in forcing extra innings.

Without a doubt, the worst loss of the season. 100%.

Anything to contribute to the Twins' enduring narrative of scrappiness and media-darlingness.

I hate this game.

Welcome To Bizzaro World

2005-04-21T15:10:00.000-05:00

1. As you might expect, I positively hated Pena's decision to have Emil Brown bunt in the 8th inning. I know the 2nd & 3rd 1 out situation is a fairly nice one, but considering dude is one of the few power hitters (sorta) on the team, and had in fact homered in his last at bat, makes it a curious decision.

2. Top 9th, Royals take the lead on a single-balk-single. Why in the hell was Berroa running to third with 2 outs?!?!? An absolutely horrendous decision on his part. Can't stress the stupidity of that move enough...

Watching Mac's inevitable blown save right now...

Believe.

[Update: Yep 9-9 now. Tiffee v. MacDougal with the bases loaded for the game.]

[Off-Topic] Save Surge

2005-04-21T11:50:00.000-05:00

Does anyone remember the soft-drink Surge? Evidently, a bunch of people liked it.

www.savesurge.com

Hilarious site... sorta reminds me of being a Royals fan in a way. The attachement to something wholly unrewarding and irrational. [i.e. NOT like being a Red Sox fan, especially in the last 25 years. Screw you Fever Pitch]

Game 15- Twins 5, Royals 4 (5-10)

2005-04-20T22:57:00.000-05:00

I always seem to post after the losses don't I?

Actually its just a coincidence thus far, and, well, linked to the much greater occurence of losses. After yesterday's thrilling victory over Cleveland, the Royals spent a large chunk of tonight's game looking like they might win two in a row. Sweeney's three-run homer gave the Royals a 4-3 lead which they held for three innings before the evil Twins caught up at 4-4.

Lima-Time beating Johan would hav been fairly cool, maybe even a season highlight at some incredibly modest level... Didn't happen of course. Somehow the Royals struck out 13 times in the game, with no walks. Emily Brown is in a nifty 0-18 slump... But RN hero Cal Pickering has done nothing to justify more playing time, well, except for the fact that he has a vaguely imaginable upside.

Nice to see a Sweeney homer and another game without him leaving early due to back problems.

Game 13- Indians 5, Royals 1 (4-9)

2005-04-19T12:41:00.000-05:00

Just another game in which it never looked like the Royals had any chance of winning. The simplest acts- getting a walk, getting a double, scoring a run - now look like gigantic obstacles for this team.

I guess only giving up five runs to the Indians is passable, but it obviously wasn't vintage Greinke out there. I wonder if he's already looking forward to his contract with the Dodgers/Mets/Yankees?Angels in two years?

Emil Brown's spring-fling may soon be over, his OPS is dropping like a stone, and now sits at .586. Of course, I'd still rather see him in the field than T-Long, for whom there is no fantasy of upside.

Whats Wrong With This Picture?

2005-04-18T19:43:00.000-05:00

Total PAs:

Brown- 36
T-Long- 33
Stairs- 30
Marrero- 26
Pickering - 20

I'm pulling for Emil as much as anyone, and its true that T-Long provides some benefit in the field, insomuchas he can stand in the outfield. And yes, Marrero's a "proven veteran" at some pointless level. Still, right now only 3 Royals have fewer PAs than Pickering, one of which is Teahen, who's been on the DL since the third game. The other two, McEwing and Castillo literally cannot hit.

Game 12- Tigers 6, Royals 1 (4-8)

2005-04-17T16:21:00.000-05:00

After missing a thrilling 6-5 victory on friday night, the Royals punished me with a crushing weekend of failure, losing the next two games to the Tigers by a score of 13-2. Its painfully clear that the Royals are to the Tigers what the Tigers were once to the Royals: a weaker sister that a mediocre team can dominate in order to give their season hope. In 2003 the Royals went 14-5 against the Tigers, and I wouldn't be surprised if this season the Tigers return the favor in full.

Ohh well. "Plus ca change..." as the French say.

For the second game in a row the Royals-Tigers affair was a dreadful matter in which it was never apparent that the Royals had any real chance of winning the game. The Tigers went up 4-0 in the top of the 3rd and from then on it was a fait accompli that the game would result in a loss. Sigh... Runelvys had his first top-to-bottom bad game of the season, although I guess theres something to be said for making it through 5 innings. Moreover, the bullpen approached decency... I'll take giving up 1 run in 4 innings any day. Then again, could it be that the Tigers just didn't care anymore and were anxious to get out of town?

The offense was up to its old tricks- one walk, one extra-base hit. Amazingly, the Royals have managed to draw more walks than the White Sox, but you can't really celebrate being non-worst in something. (The Go-Go Sox are sporting a .275 OBP as a team... so no, I don't look for them to continue winning 2/3rds of their games.

Today's lineup featured three players hitting under .200, and Buck and Marrero will have some work to do to get above it. Thank goodness Pena refuses to give Pickering more ABs. I'd hate to see the team score more than a run a game.

Still, its great to have baseball back, and in an alternate universe this is a young, scrappy, unknown team thats really fun to watch. Maybe they will be next week.

Lima Time

2005-04-15T16:14:00.000-05:00

Headed to the Cell tonight to catch White Sox-Mariners, so I'll only be able to follow tonight's epic Royals-Tigers match-up via scoreboard annoucements. I'm curious what kind of crowd the Sox will draw tonight, and exactly how understanding said crowd will be about seeing someone wearing a Royals jersey in the stands. I've always kinda thought that any vaguely baseball-related apparel was appropriate, as long as it was a suffiecently random game. Thus, I wouldn't consider throwing down for the Royals if it was a Sox-Cubs game, but a buzz-less Sox-Mariners game in April... How could someone get upset??

[Insert White Sox fans attacking umpires, first base coaches etc comment here]

Anyway, its a moderately important game for the Royals tonight. They've gone from 3-3 to 3-6 fairly fast, and I'd hate to see the season settle into ennui and despair before April 20th, which could easily happen if they're 4-12 or something at that point. Let's maintain the illusion here boys... flirt with .500 or something.

Further, theres the part of me that believes that Lima can be a league-average starter, so maybe we'll see that ERA start working its way into the 7-8 range with a decent start tonight.

Tigers-Royals: theres still bad blood from the Sweeney-Weaver battle in 2001. These teams hate each other!

Remember in the magical 2003 season when the ROyals were able to feast on the Tigers? Good times.

Joe McEwing has a 1.000 OPS. Maybe he's the new Melvin Mora? Well, 'cept that Mora was always known to have some talent. But Super Joe's a hustling white scrub, Criag Counsell without the NOtre Dame pedigree or the semi-ability to get on-base. And at 3rd base? I thought that was a semi-power position?

Ohh well, more pointless and easy bitching from me. I think our boys win tonight.

Game 9- Mariners 10, Royals 2 (3-6)

2005-04-14T16:31:00.000-05:00

Sheesh. That was horrible.

As in the first game of the series the Royals took a close, winnable-looking game and turned it into a laugher in about 25 minutes. Mark my words, Jamie Moyer won't finish with a season ERA below 4.50, pitching half his games in Safeco this season, but the Royals made him look passable, turning 9 hits into just 2 runs. Of course, when you somehow strike out 4 times against Moyer, clearly some kind of ineptitude threshold has been crossed. Then again, Pickering himself K'ed three times. Royals Nightly Exclusive Prediction: He won't be in KC on May 1st.

Bautista was shaky almost from the beginning, finally melting-down once and for all in a disastrous 4th inning. The half-inning before the Boys in Blue stranded two men in disheartening fashion, which was immediately followed by the Mariners scoring 300 runs. Or so it seemed.

Nice old-fashioned season sweep to get the home schedule going, a firm "nothing to see here folks" delivered to the good people of Kansas City.

Game 8- Mariners 2, Royals 1 (3-5)

2005-04-13T18:38:00.000-05:00

If you can only manage 1 run off of Aaron Sele, then really whats the larger purpose of fielding a team? As talked about yesterday, theres some lingering hope associated with the 2005 Royals, but its all in the promise of young pitchers, and I'd bet even money that Greinke or Runelvys finish the season on the DL. (Know the Royals luck, and the way young pitchers are.)

That said, the offense looks worse each game, with today no exception. The Royals had four hits and drew three walks, so honestly their lucky that they were able to score a run, with the somewhat comical occurence of a Matt Stairs triple leading to a run.

Here's a horrifying quote from Royals favorite Terrence Long, "Franklin threw strikes and Sele threw strikes and, in this case, we've got to be more aggressive".

What? The Tony Muser Era II you ask? Seems like it.

Basically, there's horror all around. Tony Graffanino isn't abjectly horrible as an occasional starter at third base I guess, but if Pena indulges his inner Jimy Williams and goes with Joe McEwing at any point, then we'll truly know that life is not worth living. Teahen was, and is, likely headed for a replacement level season at third, but at least he has a remotely imaginable upside. Lets hope he comes back.

Still, theres always Greinke, who's still got that shiny 0.00 ERA... And heck, Pickering at least got a sac-fly, for had he struck out with Stairs on third its possible that the chattering classes would have called for his immediate demotion to Omaha. Plus, Sweeney hasn't hit the DL yet.

Believe

Non-Surprise of the Night

2005-04-12T20:55:00.000-05:00

Danny Kolb just blew up against the Nationals (nee Expos), giving up three runs in the 9th.

But he's a Closer with a capitol C!?!?! He's fearless, he's clever, he's courageous... this can't be true.

(Sorry, I live within proximity of the Chicago media-markets, so I'm barraged with closer-myth pining from Cubs fans.)

The New Big Three

2005-04-12T14:13:00.000-05:00

JoPo makes the first "Big Three" reference I've seen- Greinke, Runelyvs, Bautista.

And Royals starter Runelvys Hernandez looked terrific.

We are only one week into this baseball season, but if you're willing to take a chance, be a fan, forget the past, suspend your cynicism for just a moment, you might see that something pretty special might be happening to this Royals team.

That something special comes down to three pitchers. The Royals already have the best 21-year-old pitching prospect on earth: Zack Greinke.

Game 7- Mariners 8, Royals 2 (3-4)

2005-04-12T00:11:00.000-05:00

47,788 people saw the Royals play today, and 47,788 saw them lose. I always love this part of the season, when damn near 50K will see the R's play on Monday, then at the next home game there'll be like 12,000 people rattling around in the stands. Call it the "AL Central Special", always guaranteed in KC, Detroit and Chicago... Cleveland was once an exception, back when Drew Carey was cool and all, but now they're solidly medicore in terms of attendence. Minnesota had some good luck this weekend, with a nice weekend opening series and a quasi-rival in the White Sox.

Anyway, the Royals of course lost today, although in many ways it was an encouraging game. Runelvys looked good for awhile, and even with the disastrous 8th inning, still only allowed 4 runs himself. Needless to say, I'll take it.

The Royals complete inability to take pitches is starting to annoy me however. The Mariners only threw 94 pitches all game. Now, I know I know, Franklin was dealing... at least thats what the national AP story suggests. Frankly, I don't buy it, Ryan Franklin is never that good and even if he is, you've got to do better. I haven't dug into the play-by-play, but at least make him work...

And, the no-walks, no-power offense continues. Lets hope Pick gets some lineup time soon, considering he's the rare Royal who can do both. And no, I'm not forgetting Sweeney, his plate discipline is in major regression.

Was that goodbye to .500 forever? We'll see.

Game 6- Royals 8, Angels 3 (3-3)

2005-04-10T19:17:00.000-05:00

Despite my unceasing pessimism, the Royals stand at .500 again... after 6 games, they're amazingly still even up. Today was a nice enjoyable win, which I was able to catch a bit of in the car driving back from the Twin Cities.

Brian Anderson heroically pitched a semi-good game this afternoon, going 6 innings and allowing just 5H 3BB and 3Rs. Pointless bitchiness from me aside, holding a good Angels team to only 3 runs is a nice day. Normally, it would be the prelude to another 4-2 Royals loss, but on this afternoon BA was able to pitch with a lead the entire day, and the Royals coasted.

Hell, the Royals even struck out 8 Angels, which is borderline amazing considering this staff.

BA's pitching notwithsatnding, the Royals whipping up on Bartolo Colon has to be the game's dominant angle, and there won't be too many games this season that feature 4 doubles, 2 homers and (gasp!) 11 singles.

Thus far, Emil Brown, Gotay and Teahen are all holding their own. Angel Berroa and T-Long are looking vaguely functional, and Sweeney hasn't been injured yet! I give Pickering another week before we see media clamoring for Swingin' Ken, so maybe he can have a big game sometime before then.

The Royals leave Anaheim with a truly satisfying series victory, and now head home to open the season at the K against the Mariners.

Tied for second in the division. You can't beat that.

Believe

Come On Guys

2005-04-07T13:29:00.000-05:00

Early Greinke's dealing, but the offense can't get anything going. Somehow Terrence Long has 2 hits, but he's also mixed in a caught stealing. Thank goodness the Royals are like 0-4 this season in stolen base attempts, they have too many guys on base as it is.

Looks like another 2-0 loss for Greinke to suffer.

Now, more bad news... Greinke's been hit with a line-drive and has left the game...

At least he won't be on the hook for a nominal "Loss". So the BBWA won't be able to criticize the effort.

Game 2- Royals 7, Tigers 2 (1-1)

2005-04-06T23:57:00.000-05:00

Is this the last time the Royals will be at .500 this season? Its an interesting question, and I'd venture to say that either 1-1 or 2-2 will bethe high-water mark for 2005.

The Big Story is the heroic return of Runelvys Hernandez, picking up his first win in two years (of course, he did refuse to tell the team that he was injured the first time, so its not like he left the team to serve in Iraq or anything). While Run-Elvis did have a nice game, scattering 5 hits over 7 innings, the measly 3 strikeouts scares me a little, raising the possibility that he just got a little hit-lucky and didnt walk anybody.

Dear David DeJesus- Stop running. Its just not worth it. Please.

The Royals somehow scored 7 runs, but when you get 15 hits that'll happen. And hell, Teahen even legged out a triple. All good things.

Affledt's inability to have a clean inning was little disspiriting, but the approach to 2005 is just not to care anymore. Find something positive and enjoy it.

Believe

Worst Team in Baseball Standings!

2005-04-05T12:20:00.000-05:00

I know its early, but really, its never too early to be checking the standings now is it?

If the season ended today...

2005 Worst Team Standings:

Kansas City- 0 wins
Pittsburg- 0 wins
Arizona- 0 wins
Tampa Bay- 0 wins
Montreal/DC/Seligeans- 0 wins

It looks like this will be a great battle all season long. Right now, no team has clearly made the definitive "we're in this to win this" kind of statement. Although, the opening blowout losses by the Royals and Snakes come very close.

We'll be watching.

Game 1- Tigers 11, Royals 2 (0-1)

2005-04-04T20:59:00.000-05:00

Well that was certainly horrible.

In the first non-made-for-TV game of the 2005 season, the Tigers destroyed our Royals in Detroit. As you probably know, Dimitri Young (aka the fat Coolio) had a decent game- becoming only the third person ever to hit three homers on Opening Day. Picking up where last season left off, the Royals game-plan featured an offense incapable of getting extra-base hits or walks coupled with a pitching staff that couldn't keep the ball in the yard.

However, the Royals did manage to strike out 5 Tigers, which was a total often not seen during entire 3 game serieses (is that a word?) last season.

Predictably, Lima Time wasn't very happy, and he's now got a nice 15.00 ERA to work with on his next start. Basically, no one save Royals Nightly hero Shawn Camp pitched very well, but then again, no one really expected them to.

On the bright side, Calvin Pickering homered in the 8th, the first extra-base hit and homer of the season for the Royals. Pickering's fighting against at least 5 imbedded MLB stigmas this season (he's fat, he's terrible with the glove, he's strikeout prone, he's not a good batting average guy, he's a career minor leaguer etc.) and he'll need to get a good start going if he wants to see 300 ABs this season. Plus, theres surely a ready and waiting KC STAR piece about the travesty of not playing "All-Star Ken Harvey" sitting on the staff's desktop, should ever a slow news day arrive.

Well, only 100 or so more losses to go.

Believe

Opening Day

2005-04-03T18:33:00.000-05:00

I really can't believe its almost here. I've had a hell of a time in failing to preview this season the way I originally wanted to, due to some unforeseen trips home and an incredibly busy March schedule, which has since given way to a busy April. However, I promise to be here for every game of the upcoming season. It probably won't happen, but looking at last season's archives, I think I made it for about 140 nightly recaps, which I'm (sadly) fairly proud of.

Unlike last season, when a reasonable case could at least be made that the Royals might be a factor in the Al Central, there are no expectations this year. Basically, 2005, is about rooting for individual players (Greinke, Pickering, DeJesus) and hoping that the Royals go around .500 against the Twins, Indians or White Sox, and possibly have some effect on the Central's pennant race.

I don't think this team sniffs 70 wins.

Official record prediction: 63-99.

Last year's team went 58-104, and you can argue that the 2005 edition isn't significantly better. I think, at the margins, the '05 team is better, and there is likely a higher ceiling with this team. Greinke, Buck, DeJesus, Affeldt and even Runelyvs and Berroa have the potential for high-quality seasons. Its always possible that Sweeney might play a full season, and that Matt Stairs and Brian Anderson have career-year v2.0.

But all these possibilities probably won't come together in one confluence, and almost certainly the loss of 1/3rd a season of Beltran and Joe Randa's adequacy will be felt.

Despite their aversion to striking people out, the brightside of this team will definetely be on the mound, where an argument might even be constructed that Bautista could break-out and that Jimmy Gobble has his uses. Nonetheless, I don't know how this team is going to ever score more than 3 runs in a game, and, as I mentioned last month, they may not feature a single player who hits 20 home-runs.

Cue Buster Olney column on changed game post-steriods. (Despite testing last season coinciding with an actual increase in HRs)

I think, not surprisingly, that the Twins will win this division, if only by default. I'm not a huge fan of their roster, and I'm not convinced they would finish ahead of Baltimore in the AL East, but they'll have the best pitcher in the AL and tons of interchangable mid-level bats to conquer a weak division. The Indians are the analyst-community's darling, but it isn't clear that they aren't plexiglass-able here. Hafner absolutely and positively will not repeat last season, mirroring similar offensive decline from around their roster. As you might guess, I hate/love what the White Sox have done, tearing down their team in the guise of improving it. The over-under on Podsednik's OBP is .320. The over-under on Carlos Lee's HR total is 35.

That leaves Detroit... Bleeh. They'll have the Royals as someone to look down on.

1. Minnesota 88-74
2. Cleveland 83-79
3. Chicago 81-81
4. Detroit 79-83
5. KC 63-99

Sheehan's AL Central Preview

2005-03-26T16:47:00.000-06:00

Joe Sheehan's preview of the AL Central is available as free content over at baseball prospectus. It should be noted that last year, at a widely optimistic time, Joe nailed the Royals on their upcoming dismal season,

This team will be among the top three teams in the AL in runs allowed. That, or Carlos Beltran will have 500 putouts. It's a soft-tossing, flyball rotation with more guys likely to have 6.xx ERAs than 4.xx ERAs. The offense might actually be decent, assuming reasonable health from a bunch of guys--Gonzalez, Stairs, Sweeney--who haven't been too reliable. But the pitchers will put a ton of balls in play, and this isn't the defense to handle that.
865 RA
758 RS

Hopefully, the Royals will realize early enough that they can't win this season and be able to flip a whole bunch of guys. That's the best-case scenario. They will not win the division.

As for this season, Sheehan writes, "the Royals will battle the Devil Rays for the title of worst team in baseball".

Ouch.

Personally, I say its 50-50 the Royals lose 100 games, but they may catch a few breaks, play well in the division and maybe only lose 90.

No!!!!!!!

2005-03-21T19:19:00.000-06:00

The word on the street (or per the KC Star) is that our Royals are interested in signing Joe McEwing as one of the utility guys.

McEwing's career line is only slightly better than what, say, any good high school player in America might put up: .253/.307/.363.

Need I add that dude isn't even fast? Lets see, other than being passable at multiple positions, McEwing still isn't actually good at anything. Take a player like Ken Harvey, Ken's not good at anything either, but there are at least a few things he doesn't suck at: he can hit a fairly empty .280, and might one day develop a little mini-power stroke and become Mike Tucker lite. It could happen. McEwing meanwhile, has no upside, no potential, and no skills. He's just a standard issue known-entity, non-criminal and looks like he hustles alot (because inherently everyone sees the suckiness). Thats freakin it.

I know its a minor, non-issue signing that hasn't even happened yet. Still, don't do this Allard.

Pickering/Harvey Update

2005-03-20T23:33:00.000-06:00

Calvin Pickering, the people's choice at 1B/DH, is having a rough spring. In 30 ABs, he's managed just 5 hits, all singles, which comes out to a nice batting and slugging average of .167. (I can't find any sources that list walks, which is a big part of Pick's value.)

Swingin' Ken, on the other hand, is batting .200, but does have a homer and a double, for a still terrible .360 SLG%.

[Insert disclaimer about Spring Training stats here.]

The thing is, I can be skeptical of good stats, but bad ones too? Its clear that Pickering will have the support of Allard, but nevertheless needs to get off to a strong start if he wants to get over 200ABs.

Well, until Sweeney gets hurt at least.

Pickering/Harvey Update

2005-03-20T23:21:00.000-06:00

Calvin Pickering, the people's choice at 1B/DH, is having a rough spring. In 30 ABs, he's managed just 5 hits, all singles, which comes out to a nice batting and slugging average of .167. (I can't find any sources that list walks, which is a big part of Pick's value.)

Swingin' Ken, on the other hand, is batting .200, but does have a homer and a double, for a still terrible .360 SLG%.

[Insert disclaimer about Spring Training stats here.]

The thing is, I can be skeptical of good stats, but bad ones too? Its clear that Pickering will have the support of Allard, but nevertheless needs to get off to a strong start if he wants to get over 200ABs.

Well, until Sweeney gets hurt at least.

Truby Out

2005-03-16T13:06:00.000-06:00

Yesterday's good news. From MLB.com,

MESA, Ariz. -- Hot prospect Mark Teahen might be the Royals' starting third baseman on Opening Day after all.

Chris Truby will be out for several weeks because of a chipped bone in his left wrist, general manager Allard Baird said Tuesday.

Celebrating the injury of a B-level placeholder... Ohh the joys.

Believe

The Perfect Storm

2005-03-07T22:31:00.000-06:00

Terrence Long, he of the .830 career OPS, praising Tony Muser, who as a .424 career winning % as a manager, and a career OPS of umm, .631?

Not possible?

Too hilarious to ever happen?

Wrong.

From today's mlb.com fluff piece on T-Long's general greatness:

Long spent most of his one season with San Diego as a pinch-hitter, a new assignment that was made easier by former Royals manager Tony Muser, now the Padres' bench coach.

"I think it was more of a mental approach to pinch-hitting," Long said. "I'd never done it before so I spent a lot of time on the bench talking to Muser and just learning the game, learning the situations. He's a smart baseball guy so you can learn a lot. That helped me relax more and just concentrate on my job. It's an important part of the National League."

For the Padres, Long hit a career high .295 and, as a pinch-hitter, his average was .340 (17-for-50). That was the best among National League pinch-hitters with at least 50 at-bats

Believe

Nice

2005-03-03T14:07:00.000-06:00

Nice triple post earlier today...

Gooooooooood Blogger...

Believe.

Royals/Rangers at 3PM

2005-03-03T10:33:00.000-06:00

Pretty cool to see games again... even if they are meaningless. I'm still trying to get around to parts 3 & 4 of the RN Royals Preview, but the work schedule has just been murder lately...

One quick thing:

-Greinke
-Gobble
-Hernandez
-Lima Time
-Tankersley
-Anderson
-Affedlt
-MacDougal

I'm pretty sure that one of these guys will do better than expected and that one of them will flame out, melt down, and be totally useless. (No, I don't know who will do this, but just that with pitchers... you know someone will surprise, good or bad.)

The question is, what will the other guys do?

Can Jimmy Gobble continue to be a major league pitcher without strking anyone out (at a historically relevant level)? Can MacAffeldt step up and be useful? Can Runelyvs return to his 2 months of adequacy in 2003?

Questions Questions...

Prospectus Triple Play

2005-02-27T18:39:00.000-06:00

The latest Baseball Prospectus Triple Play discusses the Royals, complete with a celebration of the recent news that Pickering might get a chance this season.

Good to see I'm on a similar wave-length as the pros...

Pickering Might Actually Get A Shot

2005-02-20T15:31:00.000-06:00

Very cool news from today's Star:

That leaves one opening if, as anticipated, the club chooses to keep 12 pitchers: Harvey or Pickering, whose power potential and plate discipline demand a long look.

“Pick would probably be a DH only,” general manager Allard Baird said. “There's only one year of (age) difference between the two. One guy has gotten a lot of opportunities to play in the big leagues, the other guy hasn't.”

Pickering, 28, batted just .246 last season in 35 games but hit seven homers in 122 at-bats after clubbing 35 in 299 at-bats at Class AAA Omaha, Neb. He spent the winter at the Athletic Performance Institute in nearby Tempe in hopes of slimming and toning his 6-foot-5, 300-pound physique.

“He looks good,” Baird said. “He's not another David Ortiz, but I do think he'd be a productive hitter if you gave him 500 at-bats. I think he'd have a very good on-base percentage. He'd strike out a lot, walk a lot and hit a lot of home runs.

“I'll live with the strikeouts if I have power and walks.”

The amazing thing is that a large part of the non-excerpted portion of the article is that Dutton's tone is critical, as is Harvey's. Its like both writer and player are shocked that Swingin' Ken's 3 months of empty batting average aren't guaranteeing him 600 ABs.

As I've said before, I'm rooting for Pickering to get a chance this season. This is probably his last serious shot ever, and his last decent chance at throwing together enough solid ABs to justify getting a nice MLB payday. I don't know anything about the guy, but unless I find out he's an absolutely horrible human being, shouldn't we all be rooting for him?? He's got an outside shot at retiring a millionaire, but its dependent on the decisions of others to play him...

I really love that quote from Allard pointing out that Harvey and Pickering are actually close in age.

Of course, Pena will have a large say in this, and sadly, as amazing as this sounds, I'm not sure he "gets it" as much as Allard does.

Believe.

Dead Last

2005-02-18T16:19:00.000-06:00

Good ole Buster Olney gives his preseason "power rankings" (a strange concept that has somehow infiltrated all sports and all sports websites) on espn.com. Not too surprisingly, our Royals are ranked 30th, behind such luminaries as Washington, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay and Tampa Bay.

It must be their huge advantage in steals.

But Buster, the Royals ranked 18th last season in productive outs!?!? Doesn't that count for anything anymore!?!?!

Yes, I will never live that stupid stat down. I wonder if Buster realizes that Washington led MLB in productive outs, followed by Colorado and Pittsburgh? Those teams ranked 28th, 11th and 27th in runs scored...

So f*&ing stupid... and yet, I'm mad about it.

Quickie

2005-02-17T15:56:00.000-06:00

Hope everyone is slogging through winter well-enough... Personally, I can't wait to spend many a summer night following the Royals in a losing effort. Really, it sounds great right now.

Anyway, I'm sure just about all of you have found your way over there already, but the latest Rob and Rany on the Royals discusses the state of the Royals farm system.

Basically, the Royals aren't in the best shape, excpet that, considering Greinke and DeJesus are already non-prospectus, its not quite that bad. That is more or less the situation right now. There just isn't immediate help on the way.

Believe.

Affeldt and Brian L. Hunter

2005-02-13T14:43:00.000-06:00

As you've probably seen Affeldt lost his arbitration case this weekend. From the AP:

Affeldt, eligible for the first time, will receive a raise from $350,000 to $950,000 instead of his $1.2 million request, arbitrators Christine Knowlton, Elliott Shriftman and Steven Wolf decided. They heard the case Friday.

I guess at some level I'm supposed to be happy that the cash-strapped Royals "won" the hearing and saved a couple $100,000... But honestly, I can't even muster the feeling. Maybe Affeldt really wanted to tell his boys that he was a millionaire, ( I sure would) and now he's just a little bit short of being able to do that.

Either way, RN is officially on record as not having much faith in Affeldt anymore, considering that even if he becomes an effective reliver thats still a net-loss from his former career path, which had him as a potential rotation conributor...

And, former steals champion (insert fake glee!) Brian L. Hunter has been given a NRI by the Royals, and could make the team as a fourth outfielder.

In 2003 with Houston Hunter hit .264/.313/.346, with, umm, no steals.

Unlucky 13

2005-02-12T20:30:00.000-06:00

Jacob Luft at CNNSI (does that TV channel still exist?) has ranked the AL rotations 1-14... Our Royals show up at number 13, which everything being equal injury and luck wise seems about right.

However, I'm starting to think that theres some real upside to this staff, with Greinke and Runelvys being solidly above-average and Lima-Anderson-Gobble morphing into a replacement-level innings sponge. This formula is also known as "The Minnesota Twins starting 5, 2002-3", with or without Kenny Rogers.

By the way, Luft is well-worth reading. You'll eventually see that he's down with advanced metrics, (his recent columns have used DiPS and VORP, which would get you fired from espn.com) park factors etc.

Watch out Devil Rays... the Royals are coming for ya...

Believe.

Greinke Bit

2005-02-08T15:15:00.000-06:00

I hope everyone read with wonder and joy my question concerning Zach Greinke in Will Carroll's recent chat at baseball prospectus:

"Will (Iowa): I spent last season convinced the Royals should have shut Greinke down early, if only because there was no real benefit to his being on the mound after awhile and he's so young. Can you tell me anything about how Greinke projects injury-wise... I remember how everyone said Prior was too perfect to get injured...

Will Carroll: Greinke is an interesting case to watch. Young, not a power pitcher, never overused. I feel very good about how he'll work with new Royals pitching coach Guy Hansen. Add in that the Royals are smart enough to work with ... other smart organizations, we'll say (gotta keep those sources secret!), and it adds up to the right place to be. There's always things like ticket sales, schedule integrity, and the chance that the Royals had Greinke working on certain things during those last starts that we don't know. There's a long way to go between integrating the insider and outsider info."

Its nice to see the Royals behind-the-scenes staff being well-recieved in the analyst community. This is a new phenomenon.

Tigers!?!?

2005-02-06T15:26:00.000-06:00

Where do you begin on the Magglio deal?

Too many years, too much money, and the supposed "out-clause" they have is really pretty limited.

And consider, I'm probably one of the biggest Maggs fans out there.

Seems to me that the Tigers think they have a real shot at contending in the Central. I don't know if they are right, but maybe, given Cleveland's shakiness, the WhiteSox's "lose now" plan and the general medicority of the Twins... maybe they are close.

Its the right attitude to have in this division, but perhaps a little iffy on the execution.

2005 Season Preview- Part 2 of 4

2005-02-03T15:34:00.000-06:00

At this point the question needs to be asked:

Will any Royals position player appear in over 110 games?

1) There's the Sweeney/Harvey/Pickering platoon at 1B/DH. Sweeney's not shown that he's capable of playing a full season anymore, Harvey's a thoroughly disapointing option, and Pickering's gotta fight about three different established biases against ever seeing regular playing time. I predict that Harvey will top 110 games, but its highly possible that all these guys fall into the 70-100 range.

2) Obviously, DeJesus is a good bet for a near-full season... But beyond him, the platoon rotations from hell at the corner spots seem to spell no-full time players. I still like Stairs well enough, but he's a considerable injury risk, and combined with the trio outlined above produces one of the slowest, poorest defensive combos in the American League. I doubt he tops 110 games.

3) The strange 3B/2B situations. Truby? Teahen? Where have you gone Joe Randa??

Onto the PECOTAs.

Donnie Murphy (.260/.322/.405): I don't know who Donnie Murphy is. Honestly. Apparently he's 22 and figures in the Royals 2005 plans. Split-mind point of view: .322/.405 is of course nothing to be excited about// .322/.405 from a Royals middle infielder? I'll take it, Sir.

Abraham Nunez (.231/.312/.388): Just an awful, awful projection. Say hello to one of the worst corner-outfielders in baseball if that line holds up. PECOTA sees this as a kind of make-or-break year for Honest Abe, he's got a 30% chance to collapse (to what??) a 50% chance to improve and a 33% chance to breakout. No, those number don't all add up to 100%, But the "improve" category contains the "breakout" seasons as well, breakout being lots of improvement. Worst case scenario: Nunez his like .280/.310/.450 in April, and Pena plays him for another 4 months. Hey, its not like it hasn't happened (see Harvey, Ken 2004).

Calvin Pickering (.272/.400/.543): (Free Calvin Pickering!) Sorry people, this projection isn't happening. He's not hitting 24 homers next season, and he won't be DHing in roughly 100 games. Just my prediction, based on the ominous comments coming from the Royals leadership this off-season, and the generally tragic nature of Pickering's career. Basically, I've got two interests heading into this season- seeing if the Royals can catch lightening in a bottle and contend in the Central (i.e. going .500 for two months, thus being 4 games behind the Twins on June 1) and seeing if Pick plays. Apparently his audition last season was quite good enough. He better have a good April if he ever wants to make a million dollars. Really, this is exactly the kind of guy we should be rooting for as fans...

Matt Stairs (.267/.359/.472): A year ago he seemed like a cheap, serviceable option. Now, that line just isn't quite good enough. He's an All-Star compared to Nunez, and with that kind of line about once every 10 games he'll do enough to really effect the game. PECOTA sees a 57% chance that he improves from 2004 however, which kinda fits well with Stairs' career: everytime he looks done he rebounds.

Mike Sweeney (.290/.364/.478): Sweeney's place in the heart's of Royals fans is starting to take a Sosa-esque turn, proving once again the old Jamesian (Bill, not William or Joyce) adage about teams taking out their frustration on their best player. Granted, there was that Beltran guy, but until very recently Mike was the only Royals player who could consistently get on-base and hit for power. Yea, he's well-paid (which is what each and every R's fan wanted at the time) and is injury-prone. Its time to move on. I'll never quite get over the sense that Sweeney's injury in 2003 cost this team the Central title, but thats all gone now anyway. Mike's patience has been eroding in this decade, perhaps signalling that he's pressing. I'd sure like to see him slug over .500 again, but considering his inability to leg out many doubles, and the new fences at the K, that might be only a dream. Still, PECOTA sees a 45% chance that Sweeney really rebounds in 2005, coupled with a 25% chance that the bottom-falls out.

Chris Truby (.251/.312/.415): Why?!? He's the insurance plan against Teahen not being ready, but other than a major meltdown type performance (say .200/.220/.250) whats the point? This is like having an insurance policy that just gives you another damaged car or burned-down house. Ehh... maybe I'm being too harsh. Maybe I'll close my eyes and imagine that Trubes is a good glove-man, and that he'll have a career year and go .280/.320/.440.

Mark Teahen (.251/.322/.375): Just my negativity. I say he has a rough spring-training and never gets on Pena's good side. PECOTA guesses at 90 games. I say he won't see 50, and may not top 100 ABs. For the curious, Randa's 2005 projection is .269/.331/.402 with an incredibly high collapse rate... So yea... possibilities were limited... I never did write that Randa tribute though.

Believe

10th Least Improved

2005-01-31T22:40:00.000-06:00

For those with ESPN Insider privileges, you'll be happy to know that our own celebrity Royals fan Rob Neyer lists the R's as the 10th "least improved team" of the off-season.

As a side note, is anyone else amazed by the amount of praise White Sox GM Kenny Williams continues to get?? (Check the message boards at White Sox Interactive and elsewhere) It sure looks like he's hell-bent on a 75-win season to me...

Royals Season Preview- Part 1 of 4

2005-01-27T13:22:00.000-06:00

Today's a get-away-day for Royals Nightly, as I'm heading out on a long weekend early this evening. Before braving a trans-midwestern drive however, I wanted to get some thoughts out concerning the Royals and their recently released PECOTA projections. If you're reading this site, you probably know all about PECOTA, the projection system used by Baseball Prospectus on their site and book. You probably also know that PECOTA is a computer program that takes into account the players past performance and uses age, position and body type to attempt to project future perfomance.

As Martha Stewart would say, "its a good thing."

So, the semi-format of my early attempts at thinking through this upcoming season is to kinda inch through the PECOTA data (availible for download for subscribers) and see what sticks out. As some of the fantastic commenters on this site have already noted, the system thinks highly of Calvin Pickering (free Calvin Pickering!) and somehow thinks, despite Allard's ideas to the contrary, that dude's gonna get over 400 ABS. Well, if that happens, I'll be shocked...

Going down the list (although leaving out more minor players... which I may come back to later...):

Angel Berroa: .265/.310/.409 (all numbers listed BA/OBP/SLG). Ehhh... so-so... I'm not alone in thinking that Berroa's about 30 walks a year from being a damn fine player, especially considering he's fast (although not particularly intelligent) on the bases and commonly in the lead-off spot. In short, he's actually got an offensive skill-set, however flawed. And to top it off he plays a premium defensive position non-badly. Players like Berroa, or rather what Berroa could be, are exactly the kind of players that make teams good. PECOTA thinks he's got a nice shot at improving in 2005, which is of course all age-based... but we'll see.

John Buck: .263/.314/.432. Pretty good for a young cathcer who starter his 2004 by looking like one of the worst hitters in the American League. PECOTA likes Buck to sustain his modest amount of pop, slamming 12 homers in 331 at bats. Looks like his nice second half will carry-over.

A. Castillo: .234/.313/.341. Sounds like your standard-issue middle infielder who can't hit. Notice the early trend of low OBP guys, this will continue.

David DeJesus: .283/.367/.434. DeJesus is really becoming THE brightspot to look forward to (or look forwards to) in 2005. That, and the outside shot that Sweeney has a Sweeney season again, which may or may not ever actually happen. Well Royals fans, DeJesus and Greinke... your positive elements on the roster from here till 2009. Enjoy it.

Swingin' Ken Harvey: .268/.323/.428. PECOTA thinks theres a 44% chance Harvey will improve in 2005. Sure hope so. Despite the endless posts here denouncing Harvey, he's not a totally terrible player (and of course good be a great guy... I wouldn't know). Nevertheless, its reflective of a failed mindset that Harvey is playing more than Pickering, or any other Pickering-esque AAAA player.

Terrence Long: .266/.319/.410. Why Allard why? Does anyone realize how much this guy gets paid? PECOTA only sees Long playing 60-70 games in the Royals outfield platoon of horror... we'll see if that happens. I'm dead afraid that Pena will take a shine to this guy and he'll play in 130 games.

Eli Marrerro: .272/.330/.452. Basically, Eli needs to play well, which could create a cascade effect that makes the Royals outfield situation better in spades. He isn't the tantalizing player he once was in St. Louis, but he has an established ability to hit decently. If he plays well, lesser players might not play as much. Everyone wins.

Closing question: Will any Royal hit over 20 homers in 2005???

Well who's it gonna be then I ask? Sweeney's gonna need at least 110 games to do so, as will Pickering -- and thats if everything clicks, at the plate and on the lineup card -- and maybe a guy like Marrerro. Buck? Perhaps, but I think he'll top out at 15. Swingin' Ken? Ditto.

Right now, I'd say the odds of a Royal hitting the magical 20 barrier ar less than 35%...

Until Next Time.

Believe

The Base-blog Community Reaches Out

2005-01-25T19:55:00.000-06:00

Larry M. (I know I'll misspell the name) is one of the more famous baseball bloggers on the net... and his apartment has burned down.

Larry's got a paypal button setup on his site (it was there before all this, actually) and his parents and close friends have been politelly urging donations.

http://yankeefan.blogspot.com

Larry's "Replacement Level Yankees" blog was one of the first such sites I started reading every day, and his subsequent expansion and involvement with The Hardball Times has been well-earned and well-deserved.

Personally, I don't know Larry, or really anything about him. (Although I did send him an email once-- no response) But, not having a house anymore -- with no renter's insurance-- well, thats a pretty big deal.

PECOTA Projections Are Out

2005-01-25T15:11:00.000-06:00

Evidently that eternal annual rite of mid-winter, the BP release of the new PECOTA projections via excel spreadsheet has happened...

Needless to say, I'm really excited about this.

Time to see just how inept this 2005 Royals team will be.

More later...

Believe

Nixed Affeldt-Kearns Deal?

2005-01-20T17:30:00.000-06:00

Scanning through a recent Reds discussion over at All-Baseball, Will Carroll dropped an interesting nugget relating to our Royals:

"The Reds overpaid for Dunn. What would really worry me is that O’Brien
doesn’t have a clue about value. They asked KC for JEREMY AFFELDT of all
things in return for Kearns and turned down Zito for Dunn, asking for
Harden."

Well, who knows how close the Red-Royals were to making said deal, although I am heartened that there is a chance that Allard at least had the discussion. The recent stories/press-releases on the kcroyals.com site about "taking another look at Abraham Nunez" are truly horrifying.

Royals Sign Denny Hocking

2005-01-18T20:34:00.000-06:00

Our Royals have reportedly inked Denny Hocking to a minor league deal.

Yes, that Denny Hocking, the former announcer/Jayson Stark favorite from the Twins, with a career line of .250/.308/.346.

Buster Olney probably has long essays stored away somewhere about his grit, hustle, moxie and productive-out-orific qualities.

At least Desi Relaford had a cool name and cooler hair.

Believe

Sweeney Comments

2005-01-16T15:16:00.000-06:00

Mike Sweeney (.287/.347/.504 - 106 games) has created a stir throughout the Royals-community with his semi-negative comments about the Royals organization.

On the Royals-L and elsewhere, much indignation has been feigned, but looking at the actual story, Mike takes great pain to qualify himself time and time again:

-"It is a bit frustrating. I'm not the owner. And I'm not the GM. But I am a player who wants to win."
-"I just feel like I've been misled a little bit."
-"I'm definitely not throwing up the white flag and saying get me out of here."

Interestingly, Sweeney essentially echoes the sentiments voiced by RN last week:

"Everyone in baseball knows the Central Division is the weakest. But you have to go out there and try, make some good off-season acquisitions. Build around your veterans and hopefully supplement them with guys from the minor leagues and free agents. I'm looking at the team for '05 and it's not what I hoped it would be as far as stacking the team to win a division in 2005."

Since 2001, Sweeney's games-played totals are : 126, 108, 106, with the 108 in 2003 playing a large role in slowing down the team's miracle run at an 87 win, AL Central winning season. Right now, you'd have to think that the over/under on games played in 2005 is somewhere around 110...

Has Greinke hit the DL yet??? Knowing the Royals luck, I'd say its inevitable...

Believe

Looking at the Sox

2005-01-09T17:19:00.000-06:00

Guy Bacci, over at the always fun White Sox Interactive, provides a nice summary of the off-season moves the ChiSox have made.

The article seems to place undue stress on the possible value of stolen-bases, but Bacci does mention OBP, so he just escapes getting an official reprimand from the authorities.

The question remains, does anyone else think Scott Podsednik won't be out of baseball in two years?

Beltran (Maybe) A Met

2005-01-09T13:40:00.001-06:00

Seven years, 119 million...

If he wasn't signed by the Yankees, it seems obvious now that he would end up being a Met...

Omar Minaya's pent up spending urges from his years in Montreal contribute to his off-season of insanity...

Frustration

2005-01-06T22:35:00.000-06:00

Sometimes the most obvious things jump right in front of your face and you wonder why you haven't been thinking a certain way all along.

(Sorry for the incredibly hokie, tired, cliched opening sentence... its late.)

The Royals don't have to be that good to win the AL Central.

Think about that for thirty seconds.

In the AL East, the Royals would forever be without hope. Even with a Yankee collapse (which might not be as unlikely as it seems, although, no, it wouldn't be because A-Rod "isn't a winner") there would always be the Red Sox around to win 93 games. In the AL West, you'd have Beane's A's and the revenue rich, and spending friendly, Rangers, Angels and Mariners. In one sense or another, every AL West organization is "well run", as is half the AL East. If you put the Royals in either division tomorrow, I would literally bet my life that they would not come within 5 games of first place for the next decade.

But the Royals aren't in those divisions, they're in the Central, which is probably baseball's underhanded way of approaching fairness without a salary cap; lets create a three division format which nicely manages to put most the "small market" teams in one division. Its almost as if the annual playoffs can be seen as "the three best teams and the best team from a media market under 2.5 million."

Anyway, of course you know this already.

But do the Royals really know it.

Consider the obvious implications:

1) There is no elite competition. The AL Central's champion, Minnesota, won 92 games. But with a none too sparkling 35-33 record against the East and West.

2) Thanks to the unbalanced schedule, the Royals played 76 games last season against their AL Central brothers.

Sure, the Royals are bad, even horrible. They have, to my estimation, maybe three players that any other team would trade an everyday player for: Greinke, perhaps DeJesus and possibly Sweeney.

Although it may just be Greinke.

The twist of it is though, the Twins really aren't that far ahead of the Royals, and neither are the White Sox, Tigers or Indians. The miracle ride of 2003 was both fluky and not that miraculous (83 wins, hello) but it at least showed that with a few breaks and inept rivals, alost anything is possible.

What this means is this; the Royals don't need to be the Yankees, they can be the Rangers, Orioles or Blue Jays (in terms of talent) and win the AL Central.

And yet, so far, the front office is handling this off-season as if they're the Devil Rays: resigned to failure, aware that any "major" free agent signings are futile, and praying that in 5 years all the minor leaguers in the system will become All-stars.

Talent is out there. Hope is out there. Maybe the Royals can't win in 2005, but they definetely can by 2006.

This organization needs a playoff berth... badly.

It can happen, and I think Allard has at least a decent enough vision to make it so, but there is no justification for this team to become the Expos/Nationals/Devil Rays/Brewers and throw up their hands and say "can't do it, coach, time for a spending freeze and 'youth movement'".

Believe.

Triple Play

2005-01-01T13:36:00.000-06:00

The Royals off-season comings and goings are nicely discussed in the latest Baseball Prospectus Triple Play... worth reading.

Most interesting is the side-discussion of Zach Greinke's possible non-starter-on-opening-day status...

Believe

Yes!!

2004-12-27T18:36:00.000-06:00

Sadly, I'm actually pretty excited.

Lima Time!!!

Grimace-ing

2004-12-20T18:07:00.000-06:00

The holiday season rolls on... I'm not sure I'm enough of a prospect guy to really accurately evaluate the Big A's trades, but I like what Beane is doing, just because it seems gutsy.

Its not about OBP, its about trying to find ways to win.

Trading 2/3rds of the Big Three after winning 90 games is finding a way to keep the train moving.

Throwing a fit and threatening to move to Vegas is not.

Of course, our Royals haven't really been doing either.

Here's to Calvin Pickering getting 350 ABs next season. Its my Christmas wish.

Believe

M's make moves, R's don't

2004-12-17T01:51:00.000-06:00

And to think, Seattle and Kansas City spent much of last summer battling for the title of "worst team in the American League".

Not that its really Royals related, but I'm just stunned at the Beltre deal, 5 years, 64 million; thats it?

How much is Jim Bowden paying Christian Guzman again?

(16 million+, 4 years)

What this tells me is that the vast majority of GMs think that Beltre's 2004 was a fluke. I mean, dude hit 48 homers last year, playing half his games in a freakin damp swamp, while playing 3rd base, which has basically become SS-Left in the past decade.

And he's 25 years old.

Something just doesnt add up here.

Anyway, looks like those random games against the Mariners just got tougher.

Believe.

The Mike Sweeney Story

2004-12-07T14:54:00.000-06:00

Perhaps one of the most utterly strange websites I've ever seen. I really can't glean if its parody, satire or social commentary. The Mike Sweeney Story- The Most Tragically Overlooked Sports Icon of Our Time.

Please do visit.

Free Calvin Pickering

2004-12-06T22:51:00.000-06:00

I know, I know... its December... and the answer was from a reporter, not a Royals official... but still... this is just not cool:

"Do you think Calvin Pickering fits into the Royals' plans for next season? -- Melissa M., St. Mary's City, Md.

Pickering can crush the ball, as his seven home runs in 35 games for the Royals and his 35 homers in 89 games for Triple-A Omaha attest. However, the Royals view him primarily as a designated hitter and not a first baseman. They already have Mike Sweeney and Ken Harvey for those spots, so look for Pickering to be at Omaha as a fallback in case either one of those players is injured again. "

Seriously, not cool. What exactly has Ken Harvey done to deserve this unquestioned role!?!? Well, its not like we didn't fear this would happen anyway, and theres always the chance that Swen-vey gets hurt... Nevertheless... FREE CALVIN PICKERING!

Long December

2004-12-06T13:22:00.000-06:00

Still wondering if the BALCO scandal will taint how I remember the last few years. Was Desi Relaford's .601 OPS in 2004 legitimate? What about Ken Harvey's magical run at a .300 batting average last summer? And who can forget the way a nation rallied around Joe Randa's magical .314/.363/.473 season of '99... that been sullied too?

You can place me in the "this isn't the end of the world" camp on this one, although, as with the artificial controversy regarding the BCS- if enough people feign enough indigation, it becomes important anyway.

Gammons' ESPN.com column on Saturday was perhaps the best thing he's written for espn ever and is well worth reading. Its a nice appraisal of whats truly happened, and whats truly been lost, without diving into a screed against the despicable cheaters who have stolen a nation's innocence.

Beyond Bonds and BALCO, theres the larger issue of the continuing conflict between the player's union and the owners, which is increasingly becoming a repeat of the Iran-Iraq war: causeless save for greed, no one worth rooting for, and seemingly unending. To be sure we'll be subjected to an off-season filled with quotes from the Seligians about everything rotten under the sun, and how somehow the A-rod deal, the Metrodome and guaranteed contracts are to blame.

Meanwhile, here in the AL Central, we'll toddle along amongst ourselves, as the bold (Detroit) battle the indifferent (our Royals), the stupid (White Sox) and the innovative (Indians) try to unseat the mighty (cough cough) Twins.

I keep waiting for more free agent signings to happen, but I guess its too early. Hell, at this time last year we were only just beginning the A-rod to Boston saga.

Finally, Home Plate in Space is running a panel discussion on Carlos Beltran, and yours truly has shared his thoughts on our departed hero. Its worth checking out, and looks like it'll be spread out over this week.

Believe

Kendall Trade

2004-11-28T16:29:00.000-06:00

Looks like its finally done. The boys at USS Mariner like the move the A's have made. Try as I might, I can't really find a direct Royals angle... but it is another example of a "small market" club (or rather, the same one as always) that is willing to think outside the box and attempt to improve.

Or at least, try to improve.

Which is alot better than endless whining about things that aren't changing anytime soon.

Believe.

Colt

2004-11-18T20:55:00.000-06:00

Colt Griffin was not added to the 40-man roster, and will be availible in the Rule V Draft. (I think Neyer used to always do a rant on how everyone used the roman numerals for no reason...)

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see if someone picks him up. Either way, its pretty depressing.

Fan Scouting Report

2004-11-18T15:22:00.000-06:00

As the off-season drags
No hope for improvement
Only fear of a stupid signing
or two...

But at least Vinny Castilla and Christian Guzman are already off the market!!

Huraa!!

By the way, I got an email today from the folks at Tangotiger... they're putting together a scouting report database, and are solicting fan evaluations of players... Royals fans are invited to participate.

This might be your last, best chance to evaluate the defensive ability of Matt Stairs, Ken Harvey and Dee Brown!!!

The Worst Trade of All-Time??

2004-11-10T15:59:00.000-06:00

Another angle in thinking about the Padres-Royals trade is this: how do you evaluate the merits of transaction in which, EVERY PLAYER INVOLVED has been a below-average contributor?
The trade is essentially a problem swap of principles, with some promise that Tankersley might be decent someday.

Lee Sinins of the Sabermetric Encyclopedia and The Hardball Times notes that in the last three season Terrence Long has arguably been one of the worst outfielders in baseball,

RCAA (Runs Created Above Average)
1 Endy Chavez -48
2 Terrence Long -42
T3 Doug Glanville -41
T3 Ron Calloway -41
5 Timo Perez -36
6 Gabe Kapler -33
7 Jose Macias -32
T8 Juan Encarnacion -30
T8 Roger Cedeno -30
10 Michael Tucker -29

May has a career -1 RCAA by the way, Tankersley is at -37 and Bukvich -6... So I guess comparatively speaking D.A.R.Y.L's the man.

More Trade Comments

2004-11-09T19:52:00.000-06:00

Rob and Rany (aka "the internet's most famous Royals fans") are fairly positive in their evaluations of this trade:

Rany: Exactly. I know that our assessment of this deal isn’t universal; my buddy Joe Sheehan thinks May is due for a big improvement now that he’s finally pitching in a ballpark which suits his flyball tendencies, and he argues that it’s hard to win any trade in which you acquire Terrence Long. But trades aren’t defined by the worst players you acquire; they’re defined by the best. When you factor in age, cost, and service time, Tankersley is clearly the best player in this deal. And it’s a pretty good rule of thumb that when you end up with the best player in a trade, you won the trade.

Of course, May was pitching in the newly expanded confines of the K in 2004 and it didn't seem to help him that much.

Trade News-- Bye Bye D.A.R.Y.L.

2004-11-08T15:39:00.000-06:00

Padres get:

D.A.R.Y.L. May
Ryan Bukvich

Royals get:

Terrence Long
Ryan Tankersley

Umm, OK.

Why Allard, why? Are you trying to make my AL Executive of the Year vote look even worse? First, with regards to the the Tankersley-Bukvich challenge trade: well, Tanks' a year younger, and has a cool name. He's got a rep as a guy with decent stuff, but it hasn't been reflected in his major league performance yet. Perhaps Tankersley has more upside thank Bukvich, and is partially making up for the terribleness of acquiring T. Long. Maybe.

Which of course brings us to the May-Long end of the trade. Some strange quotes from Allard here:

"Going into it, Abraham Nunez is the guy but Terrence will compete with him. It doesn't take away the void for the corner outfield run-production guy that we're looking for."

So, he's not necessarily the starter? Is another pickup in the works? If this is the case, why pickup Long at all?

"He can run, play defense. He's not a plate discipline guy -- he's aggressive with the bat but he's a guy who should give us some offense. What I like is his ability to hit doubles. He's a gap-to-gap hitter who should fit very well in our ballpark," Baird said.

Wow, explicit reference to "plate discipline" as an attribute, although in the context of trading for a guy who can still help the offense.

Was Allard just looking to get rid of May? Reading between the lines, it seems like there is just no reason to go after a guy like Terrence Long (who incidentally, proved to be a bit of a malcontent during his final, awful, season in Oakland), especially if he isn't even likely to be the starter. Or gasp, he is, and Allard's just talking about picking up the other corner-slot. Maybe its the defense (I guess), maybe Allard really likes his doubles power (cough cough).

America turns her eyes to the upcoming Nunez-Long spring training battle.

May's 32 and not getting any younger, or better, but I can't help but feel that an innings sponge was more valuable than this. I love the stated assumption in the official MLB.com piece that the Royal had a batch of younger starters coming up, making May expendable. Of course, theres no mention of how terrible/injured these guys may not be.

D.A.R.Y.L, we'll always have your semi-adequate 2003.

Believe.

Thinking About The Central

2004-11-07T21:23:00.000-06:00

Its never too early to start thinking about next season's AL Central... and in fact, on any given day this offseason, I'm sure 90-95% of all baseball fans will be pondering the 2005 season in baseball's most scintillating division! (Margin of error 90-95%)

Minnesota (92-70, 46-30 in division): A franchise that thoroughly believes its own press clippings (small ball, silly non-unique nicknames, obsession with defense, stupid contracts followed by bitching and lying about market etc etc), I just can't see the Twins winning more games next season. Their probably still the class of the division, but it is time for the Twins to take some creative risks and see if they can actually win something worth talking about with this team. Because I'm sorry, but no one is impressed with the current 3-year run.

Chicago White Sox (83-79, 40-36): A completely lost franchise, these White Sox. They're still right there in terms of challenging the Twins, (the injuries to Thomas and Maggs absolutely killed their season) but seem content to instead find new and interesting ways to squander any hopeful inklings. Naturally, the Sox have all but signed Omar Vizquel, a cranky, expensive, virtualy asset-less player at this point in his career. Naturally, he'll probably play 140 games and drop down approximately 40 sac bunts.

Cleveland (80-82, 36-40): Are they on the way up, or have they maxed-out? I think they need to get alot better next season if they want to win 85 games... I smell a Royals 2003-4 stretch version 2.0 here.

Detroit (72-90, 36-40): Improving on 2003 was easy, but how can this team reach 75 wins? Well, if Minnesota, Cleveland and Chicago all get worse, then where do those extra wins go? You guessed it, straight to Comerica Park. Plus, they've picked up Byron Gettis off waivers, so thats worth at least one game right there.

Kansas City (58-104, 32-44): The fact that the 2004 Royals could go 32-44 in division should tell you something about the overall strength of baseball's Norris Division. In fact, if the team hadn't completely fallen apart against the Indians and Sox to end the season, they might have gone .500 in the division. If you think I was being a tad harsh on the Twins above, consider their own division record as well as the Royals. And yes, I know they had injuries, they also got career years from three pitchers (Radke, Santana, Nathan) and a never to be duplicated again 569 ABs from Lew Ford... But about those Royals... yea, its still gonna be ugly.

IBWA Awards

2004-10-29T17:50:00.000-05:00

The IBWA (Internet Baseball Writers Association) has announced its 2004 award winners. As an actual voter in this election, proudly do I spread the word here.

NL Player of the Year: Bonds
AL Player of the Year: Guerrero

NL Pitcher of the Year: Johnson
AL Pitcher of the Year: Santana

NL Debut of the Year: Greene
AL Debut of the Year: Crosby

NL Manager of the Year: Cox
Al Manager of the Year: Showalter

NL Executive of the Year: Jocketty
AL Executive of the Year: Epstein

Full results are listed over at All-Baseball. Greinke finished a strong second in the AL Debut voting, and was the only "candidate" that was anywhere close to Oakland's Bobby Crosby. Personally, I voted for Greinke, and believe that his was the stronger performance, but alas, the affinity between internet writers and the opinions of Billy Beane is well-documented.

All Royals fans should be proud to note that Allard Baird did receive one vote for AL Executive of the Year, can you guess who cast it???

Believe

Off-Topic: The Post-Game Death in Boston

2004-10-25T03:04:00.000-05:00

A MD/Blogger has looked into the tragic death of the Emerson College and concluded, from both his personal experience with patients, and from examining the published research on eye-injuries of this type, "by teleological reasoning, the woman shot in the eye with an exploding pepper ball should not have died."

Just a very sad story, and possibly one that has been grossly misreported by the media and misunderstood by the public.

Damon's Background

2004-10-24T22:26:00.000-05:00

Been getting some hits on this subject (Johnny Damon's ethnicity) somehow... so I'll clear it up.

Johnny Damon's mother is Thai.

Torn

2004-10-24T17:25:00.000-05:00

Feeling pretty torn on who to root for in this series. Many contradicting factors floating around:

1) Boston's the AL team, usually, absent any compelling reason to root one way or another, I root for the AL team... I've just always been an AL guy.

2) Boston's a saber-friendly organization. I'm not really sure what Bill James exactly does for the Red Sox, but its at least cool that the organization would hire him in any role. Both Theo and John Henry are, as the kids say, "down with" statistical analysis, and generally in favor of the largely Weaver-ite strategy approaches that the Buster Olneys and Tim McCarver's of the world bemoan so loudly. In short, they've tried to convince people that bunting, batting average and the joys of small ball are overrated. This is a good thing, and its nice that the right approach to the game is housed in one of the most beloved and well-funded franchises.

3) Boston's on the East Coast. As such, the Sawk's are damn near a media darling, and somehow kids growing up in Idaho know all about the "curse of 1918" or whatever.

3a) Thus, somehow their fans are more "suffering" than say, uhh... Royals fans. Hmm... you have the second highest payroll in baseball, play in a revenue-generating tourist attraction, and are a perennial play-off team... Would you like fries with that? The Royals won 83 games last season and the collective attitude among the "Royals Nation" (to use the now trendy nomenclature) was that this was nothing short of a miracle. Spare me your pity.

4) But, theres the whole KC-StL thing. These cities seem to hate one another, although I'm not totally sure why. (Actually, Bill James 1986 Abstract, which as a brilliant breakdown of the epic '85 World Series has some pretty good commentary on the KC-StL rivalry.) The Cardinals have sorta become the Midwest version of the Yankees-Sox... vaguely self-important and self-congratulatory and myopic. Hence, the repeated "best baseball city in America" angle.

5) As implied by above, the Cardinals aren't particularly "new school" in their approaches. LaRussa's a fairly unique, if not ever-changing manager... but he's still overly-interested in giving the other team outs, fetishizing clubhouse character and the endless double-switching. On the other hand, his approach to relief matchups- in his own unique way- is a positively stathead gesture.

6) The Cardinals are the underdog. I like underdogs.

7) The Cardinals are a classic midwestern/southeastern Americana team. There are diehard, lifelong Cardinal fans from the Dakotas, down to Iowa, through Missouri and along the Mississippi down into the South. Large pockets of Indiana, Tennessee, Arkansas and Alabama are all parts of the Redbird reach. Its a reminder of the days of radio re-broadcasts, pre-expansion baseball and pre-Cable/internet. In short, its cute in its own way. Personally, I'll always prefer the opinions of the Midwest and Trans-Mississippi Southeast to the media fueled opinions of the North East megalolpolis.

About Last Night

2004-10-21T14:54:00.000-05:00

Data Point #1 : Red Sox 10, Yankees 3
Data Point #2: Red Sox 4, Yankees 3
Date Point #3: Johnny Damon 3-6, 2 HRs, 6 RBI

Last night's Yankees-Sox game, dually hyped and genuinely anticipated, may have been the most important American League game played in the last twenty-five years. Or only the most important game since last season's Yankees-Sox Game 7. Either way, since (pick your moment really) somewhere between David Ortiz's 14th inning single and Curt Schilling's 2nd dominant trip through the Yankee lineup, the ALCS took on a mythic/historic quality thats hard to overlook. Right smack in the middle of what would become a strangely anti-climactic Game 7 was none other than former Royal Johnny Damon. Considering the magisterial performance of Carlos Beltran this post-season, the briefly relevant appearances of Curtis Leskanic and the forthcoming Game 7 start for Jeff Suppan tonight in St. Louis, its shaping up to be a post-season with a uniquely former-Royal flavor.

That Johnny Damon would raise his postseason OPS from .527 to .702 in the biggest game of his life, indeed the biggest game of at least the 2004 season, is probably only a felicitous stroke of circumstance. I don't know if he spent the day "relaxing with a lady" as Reggie Jackson did before his seminal Mr. October game, or if he took a new mental approach to the plate. Its likely his approach was the same, his intensity was the same, and the instruction he recieved from his coaches was the same; dude just had a good game at the right time.

In a way however, the game was classic Damon, highlighting the teasing, streaky, inconsistent player that he's always been. During his final seasons in Kansas City, Damon had the annoying habit of alternating between months of .270/.320/.360 and .350/.400/.550 type performances. During his career year, 2000 in Kansas City, he finished his season with an outstanding .327/.382/.495 line, his career highs in each category. Damon was still an excellent CF back then, and complimented his game with 46 steals. Essentially, he was Ichiro with power and at a more critical position.

Interestingly, Damon's career year was fueled by an absolutely insane 2nd half, in which Damon raised his batting average from .267 to .327, which is damn near impossible. (Sorry but I'm having a hard time finding a 2000 game-log, still I think you get the idea) In short, that 2000 season crystallized both Damon's hot-cold nature, and capped his career with the Royals. He hasn't been near as effective since, and for this Red Sox team he's in the lineup as much for his still above-average CF range than anything else.

Congrats Johnny... its nice to see a player developed by the Royals have his historical moment. Just between you and me, we'll always have 2000. Say hello to Carlos for me next week, should tonight's game in STL go like it should.

Making Us Proud

2004-10-19T13:32:00.000-05:00

Carlos Beltran's Postseason line:

.462/.543/1.154

Curtis Leskanic's Postseason line:

2.2 IP 10.13 ERA .300 BAA

Ok, so theres really nothing about CL's performance to really make Royals fans proud, at least in composite. However, his 1.1 of scoreless baseball in Game 4 of the ALCS earned him a win, and made him one of many Sox heroes during the game.

Believe

Beltran

2004-10-17T15:50:00.000-05:00

Carlos Beltran's postseason line:

.469/.553/1.219

7 Homers, 3 doubles, 5 singles, 2 steals

Of course, he isn't making many productive outs, so it hasn't been all great.

Believe... In Ineptitude

2004-10-12T11:22:00.000-05:00

Tony Pena's career record: 190-260 (.422)

Royals final attendence figures:

Total- 1,661, 478 (27th, just behind Florida and ahead of Pittsburgh)
Avg- 21, 031 (29th, between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay)
% Capacity- 51.6% (25th, tied with Cleveland and ahead of NY Mets)

[Wow... Cleveland went 80-82, was supposedly one of the most exciting teams in the AL for awhile, and they had roughly comparable attendence figures with our Royals.]

By the way, how can Boston finish with an attendence average of 100.7%? If you are always above capacity, then isn't your capacity really not capacity?

End the lies.

Believe

Sweeney for Sosa

2004-10-06T15:19:00.000-05:00

According to the Star's Bob Dutton, its a possibility, if not an actuality.

Strangely, everything other than performance seems to be floating above the prospect of this trade, specifically issues of money, race and coaching. I think its dubious to suggest that Sosa would truly be a big draw in KC, so on the level of advertising its difficult to justify the move. Secondly, there is the issue of race and ethnicity, with a speculative notion that Sammy might be happier and hence perform better playing for a Latin manager. Umm... of course I have no real way of knowing what would make Sosa happy or not happy, but the easy response is that a player so fickle isnt worth having around.

Lastly, are we saw in Oakland and New York with Rick Peterson and the Kazmir trade, a large part of the trade hinges on Sosa's ability to work with Royals batting coach Jeff Pentland, and the supposed benefits thereof. And on this point I am definetly agnostic. The Royals didn't display, as a team, great plate-discipline this season, so I'm not sold that Pentland can re-train Sammy in this regard. Further, it doesn't exactly look good that Sammy can apparently be so easily fixable just because he was stubborn and or willfully undisciplined this season in Chicago.

Some projections:

Wins Above Replacement Level

Sosa '05- 2.3
Sosa '06- 1.8

Sweeney '05- 2.2
Sweeney '06- 1.6

As you can see, at least before this season, PECOTA pegged the two players as being remarkably similar in terms of value. In 2004, Sweeney-Sosa plays out like a classic quality versus quantity debate writ small:

Sosa: .253/.332/.517 (528 PAs)
Sweeney: .287/.347/.504 (444 PAs)

Sweeney grades out to a slightly more productive player, but also one who played less (and seemingly is a good bet to play less in coming years... well, maybe).

Everything else being equal, I'd be against the trade because the upside doesn't outweigh the downside. For the Royals, the best case scenario is that Sosa has a slightly better 2005, and somehow repeats it in 2006- maybe something like a .265/.340/.550 line, while Sweeney is injury-prone and plays in 100 games for the Cubs. I'd roughly place the odds of both these events happening at around .10%. However, the worst case scenario is that Sosa doesn't improve, and his slightly injured, and that Sweeney stays healthy for a full season and plays at his established level. I think, given the age of both players, the odds of these two events happening is something greater than 10%.

Beyond a Sweeney witch-hunt, I just don't see what the true motivation for this trade would be.

Game 162- White Sox 5, Royals 0 (58-104)

2004-10-04T19:07:00.000-05:00

One final, terrible, shutout loss. In the season finale our Royals were completely dominated by Yankee-exile Jose Contreras and the amazing Shingo!- 3 singles, 2 walks and no runs. Fitting really, considering how the 2004 season went.

Final 2004 rankings:

Runs- 720 (11th in AL)
Batting Average- .259 (13th in AL)
OBP- .322 (13th in AL)
SLG- .397 (13th in AL)

Honestly, how in the hell did this team manage to outscore Toronto, Tampa Bay and Seattle? Felicitous circumstance I guess, or, if you prefer, a somewhat higher batting average with runners in scoring position (.267, 10th in the AL).

And what exactly was the point of sending the franchise out for one, final, utterly meaningless start? Greinke had a nice enough day, allowing just 3ER in 5 innings, and thankfully Pena had no designs on having him pitch a complete game or anything else childish. Honestly, the whole thing looks like an attempt to register a mythical "W", and as soon as that enterprise looked out of reach Zach was pulled. Ohh well, what can you do other than complain??

Game 161- Royals 10, White Sox 2 (58-103)

2004-10-02T23:50:00.000-05:00

It seemed like win number 58 would never come, the feeling is magical really. The Royals snapped a wholly pathetic 7 game losing streak, which featured offensive totals of 1,1,1,1,2,2,2 (in that order). So yea, scoring 10 runs was a tad unexpected.

The Royals had a good old-fashioned effective night at the plate: 9 singles, 3 homers, 1 double, 1 triple and (amazingly) 8 walks. Thanks to a 3-4 night, David DeJesus raised his season line to a thoroughly impressive .287/.362/.404, all while playing above-average defense in centerfield.

Unfairness Update:

Calvin Pickering- .252/.345/.513 (137 PAs)
Dee Brown- .255/.298/.354 (203 PAs)
Desi Relaford- .221/.296/.305 (414 PAs)
Ruben Mateo- .194/.235/.301 (96 PAs)

(Inside Pena's head)"Hmm... we have a guy who can slug .500 against Major League pitching... But is he fast? Did he once have a batting average with a "3" in the front of it? NO!"

I understand that alot of Desi's PAs where a result of the various injuries the team's middle infield suffered. Nevertheless, in that horrible conglomeration of Harvey/Nunez/Mateo/Brown/Stairs that the team used, Calvin Pickering deserved more of a shot.

Ohh well, spilled milk.

But at least Brian Anderson got to give up another 2 home runs!

Congrats BA, you beat the Sox B-team a month after they cared and 4 months after the Royals were relevant. I just can't get too excited. (Although to be fair, Anderson's press clippings have been much easier to read than the bizarro drivel coming from D.A.R.Y.L May)

Last game of the season tomorrow. Actually sad to see her go.

Believe!

To Failure

2004-10-01T22:09:00.000-05:00

Interesting article over at Mike's Baseball Rants on the Royal's strange three year run.

Worth reading.

Game 158- Indians 5, Royals 2 (57-101)

2004-09-30T15:58:00.000-05:00

The Worst.

Thats what these Royals are now, the absolute worst Royals team ever. Amazingly, this was a team that some predicted would win the AL Central, or at least win 85 games.

The offense has completely broken down, basically its come down to hoping for 6 straight singles and a few errors from the opposing team if you want a big inning. By virtue of scoring 2 runs against the Tribe however, we can relish in the fact that the 4-game 1-run streak is over.

Mike Wood's season is done. Wood's final numbers:

-17 Starts, 100 innings 3-8 record
-Thanks to a fairly low walk-rate (2.5/9), Wood's WHIP approaches respectability: 1.40
-K-rate: 4.9/9; HR-rate: 1.4/9
- ERA: 5.94

Ehh... There was a stretch in early August where he looked like he might be a decent contributor, now he looks like an innings-eater at best. Well, we'll see, I'm sure another season with the Royals "pitch to contact" type-instruction will certainly do him no good.

Mac's ERA is now at 6.10, lets pray he gets it under 6.

Believe.

Indians Bus Shot at in KC

2004-09-30T03:13:00.000-05:00

Its always something with the Royals... the numerous on-field incidents in Chicago come immediately to mind, and now this: mysterious shots being fired at the Indians as they leave town.

Absolutely insane. Thankfully, no one appears seriously hurt.

Game 157- Indians 5, Royals 1 (57-100)

2004-09-29T15:36:00.000-05:00

Someone call Tony Muser, his place in Royals infamy is waning.

With last night's loss the Royals have now tied their worst record ever, and will almost certainly surpass it over the season's final weekend.

Congrats are also in order to D.A.R.Y.L May... we couldn't have been this bad without you Sir, 9-19, with a 5.61 ERA and about a million homers allowed...

But hey, Matt Kinney had probably his best outing in Royal-White, and thanks to 3 scoreless innings lowered his season ERA from 6.39 to 6.14.

As for the offense...

Two singles, a double and one walk is the best we can do? And why is Desi Relaford in the lineup at the expense of Pickering or any of the other 3 or 4 retreads at Pena's disposal? Are we trying to break some kind of "sucking at the most positions" mark???

Believe

Game 156- Indians 6, Royals 1 (57-99)

2004-09-28T13:26:00.000-05:00

Just a terrible, terrible loss. Thanks to an inept offense and a late-inning bullpen meltdown, the Royals will now certainly reach the 101 L mark, making 2004 the worst season in Royals history.

Zach Greinke pitched what I hope will be his final game of the season, and offered Royals fans a slight glimmer of hope. We'll, hope that next year's 60-70 win team will have at least one good pitcher. Greinke went 7 innings, allowing only 4 Hs, 2 BBs and 0Rs. With the 7 shutout innings, Zach lowered his season ERA to 3.92, its lowest point since it stood at 3.51 after a July 15th win over the Twins.

In terms of VORP, Greinke's basically been better than the rest of the Royals rotation combined.

Greinke- 36.4

Everyone Else: 15.4

Gobble- 9.0
Reyes- 9.0
Wood- 3.6
Affeldt- 2.9
Anderson- -11.7
May- .2
Serrano- 5.3

The only Royals offense came from DeJesus's 6th inning homer. David's put together a really nice second half (.310/.383/.450), and is primed to be one of the 8 or 9 best CFs in the AL next season. Considering the other options, I'm quite pleased with the Royals home-grown Beltran replacement.

Saying Goodbye

2004-09-27T23:16:00.000-05:00

Looks like I might need to get started on that Randa Tribute...

We'll never forget your .836 OPS in 1999 Joe.

Odds

2004-09-27T17:32:00.000-05:00

According to the latest playoff odds report at BP, the Royals are looking like a 60-102 team. If that (and everyting else holds) the Royals will end up with the worst record in the AL (in the easiest division) and the second worst record in all of baseball (thank you D-Backs).

Game 155- White Sox 5, Royals 1 (57-98)

2004-09-27T17:05:00.000-05:00

The quest to avoid 100 losses isn't looking so good. Despite a smattering of good moments, our Royals dropped 3 of 4 in Chicago, and now stand at 57-98. The loss was the fastest game played in baseball this season, as the Royals hacked away and the White Sox homered for runs at the Cell. As Bob Dutton notes in today's Star the Royals have now broken the old franchise mark for worst road record, standing at a brilliant 25-57.

Uhh, I understand that I am supposed to now write:

Believe.

Pena's fascination with Desi Relaford continues, although I guess at some point the generalized bitching at specific points of stupidity doesn't really matter. At least Pickering hit a homer, furthering the chance that he makes next years...

Ohh wait, it probably doesn't mean anything.

Updated Pickering Line:

.262/.350/.534

Update on Wilton Guerrero PAs:

32 (easy to compute when dude has no walks)

Seven games left, must go 6-1.

Game 151- Royals 7, Devil Rays 6 (56-95)

2004-09-23T13:46:00.000-05:00

Well, D.A.R.Y.L didn't get loss # 19, though he easily pitched bad enough to deserve it. May went 6 innings, allowing 8 Hs, 2BBs and 5ERs. Is anyone else uninspiried? Luckily for him, the Royals rallied back from a 4-3 D-Rays lead and eventually won the game in extra innings. MacDougal and Affeldt even combined for 2 scoreless innings, picking up the win and the save (in reverse order from last season).

I can't remember the last time we had both those guys pitching well in the same game.

Ohh yea, the Royals also won their second straight series! Maybe they won't lose 100 games after all. (Although I'd bet they do.)

All hail Calvin Pickering: 3-5 with 3 doubles. His season line is now :281/.369/.562. We probably won't know till next spring what Pick's role on the next Royals team is... but his mini-hot-streak here in mid-September might be saving his career, or at least, a mini-career in his later years.

The Royals now open up against the Sox, should be an interesting series... two teams going no where and playing scrubs and bizarros (sorry, but Wilton Guerrero again? If this guy makes it to 100 ABs, I don't trust Pena anymore)...

Believe

MayDay

2004-09-22T11:49:00.000-05:00

Its amazing how little media coverage he's getting, but D.A.R.Y.L. May is closing in on 20 big fat Ls on the year. (At least his cherished spot as the Royals top K man mutes the criticism) Maybe its sorta like the lack of genuine excitment which saw Bonds break Big Mac's record, only this time its from the horrors of the 2003 Tigers leaving everyone feeling burned out.

Still, May goes for his 19th loss in a few hours... should be thrilling!

Believe

Game 149- Royals 6, Devil Rays 3 (55-94)

2004-09-21T13:18:00.000-05:00

When the Royals play the Devil Rays, who exactly is supposed to win? I thought of that last night, and frankly couldn't come up with an answer. The Rays have alternatively been thrilling and awful this season, but in hindsight it looks like they managed to cram all of their "Royals 2003-esque alloted baseball luck" into one good month rather than an entire season. The Rays have never won 70 games, and there has been much brave talk in Tampa this season about this being the year. Well, after last night's game the Rays sit at 63-85, so maybe we should all sit back and worry about not getting too ahead of ourselves.

Who said Brian Anderson was done?? BA had a nice little game last night, sure he gave up as many homers (2) as strikeouts recorded (2), and he also walked more (3) batters than K's recorded, but who's counting. The Rays could only manage mostly singles and double plays, and at the end of 7.2IP our man had only allowed 3ER.

Anderson's season ERA is now 5.82- the lowest its been all season.

Plus there was another solid outing by Affeldt to be excited about, his ERA has also found its low-water mark for the season, at 4.35.

Ohh yea, the big homer by Calvin Pickering... After sitting at .191 on September 5th, Calvin's rebounded nicely, and thanks to a 2-2 game with 2 walks, he's now posting a .259/.351/.519 line. Pickering's VORP is now 6.4, making him the 5th most productive player, on the season, on the active roster.

Game 148- Indians 8, Royals 3 (54-94)

2004-09-20T13:01:00.000-05:00

There is really nothing quite like the lineup fielded by a bad team in late September.

Good to see that Alexis Gomez made it into his 10th game of the year yesterday, possibly having the game of his life in the 8-3 loss. Gomez's 3-4 day raised his season line from an anemic .133/.188/.133 to (still bad) printable .263/.300/.316. Basically, he's now the spitting image of Ken Harvey minus 2 singles a week. Bravo! It turns out he is a good-luck-charm from the halcyon days of the dream 2002 season.

Ruining the goodwill caused by Wood and Gobble's encouraging outings, Denny Bautista struggled through another exposure to major league hitting, lasting only 4 innings and allowing 6 ERs on 8Hs. Bautista's season ERA is now above 12, which makes him a strong candidate to be the #3 starter on the 2005 Royals.

Royals Season Strikeout Update!!

Thanks to a 30 inning cushion on his nearest competitors, D.A.R.Y.L May looks poised to win the title of Royal strikeout king.

1. May- 111 (174 IP)
2. Reyes- 87 (103 IP... good thing we kicked him out of the rotation, huh Allard)
3. Greinke- 85 (126 IP)

I really wish that Greinke K-rate was a little higher, but then again, 6.1 K/9 is actually fairly good, so maybe its just an expectation/reality problem.

May's currently tied with Francisco Rodriguez of the Angels for 25th in the AL in Ks. Of course, K-rod did manage his 111 in 76 innings, so we probably shouldn't take the comparisions too far.

The Quest to Remain Respectable

2004-09-20T10:11:00.000-05:00

According to the latest playoff odds report at Baseball Prospectus, the Royals are most likely headed to a 60-102 record, good for the worst season in playoff history. (Taken from simming the rest of the season a million times based on the remaining schedule etc etc)

This despite the vaguely good weekend in Cleveland.

Well, I thought 110 losses would surely happen, much less 102, so maybe hope is in the air.

On the Road Again

2004-09-17T10:54:00.000-05:00

Our Royals begin a 10-game roadie today in Cleveland... I wonder if the franchise record for losses (100) will be intact when they return to the K?? This team is fully capable of turning in a 1-9/2-8 type trip, and in fact, if I really had to put money on it, I'd take the under on 3 wins.

So many wonderful things to think about though. Stairs getting resigned, D.A.R.Y.L approaching the 20 loss mark, the battle between Grimace and Smilin' Joe Randa for top team batting average, Sweeney's desire to re-enter the lineup, the epic pursuit of dead-last in strikeouts etc etc.

Oh, and the whole matter of the Royals not scoring in the last 18 innings. This is starting to look like that horrible stretch when they went through San Diego and Minnesota and scored something like 2 runs in 40 innings. You think this is surprising, then you look at the lineup and wonder how they ever score at all...

I'm officially labeling tonight's start a "big game" for Mike Wood. After showing flashes of acceptability, he's slowly degenerated into Bad Brian Anderson Lite, becoming a good candidate to allow more homers than strikeouts in any given game. I really want to see him bear down and put together a nice 6 innings.

We'll see.

OK, time to drive across 3 midwestern states.

Believe.

Game 144- Yankees 4, Royals 0 (52-92)

2004-09-15T15:29:00.000-05:00

(Behind on posts obviously...)

Well, its clear that the Royals can't stand prosperity, as they have answered a monstrous offensive output with a shutout.

The quest for 110 losses continues.

Believe.

Second Half Surge

2004-09-14T11:49:00.000-05:00

A few Royals are enjoying pretty nice 2nd halves:

Angel Berroa- .327/.381/.455

John Buck- .243/.290/.461 (yes, this is good considering how he started)

Joe Randa- .312/.357/.453