Royals Nightly
Monday, June 07, 2004
Off Day- The Beltran Rules
- I keep hearing Carlos Beltran rumors, although I'm not sure how I am supposed to react to them. Jim Rome referenced the Marlins-Yankees threeway rumor today on his show, which then bridged into a standard anti-Yankees rant.

The problem is, no one really knows what Beltran's trade value is. First, as everyone knows, he'll be a free agent at the end of the year. The depressing effects that has on his value are fairly obvious, although, given the variance thrown in by an emotional desire to "win now", there could be a mild countervailing effect . Secondly, theres some debate as to just how good Ole Carlos really is. He's hitting .275/.358/.526 this season, which is good but certainly not great. Beltran's created more runs than any other Royal, but per innings played has actually been less productive than Ken Harvey. A few weeks ago, while Beltran was still mired in his horrible May slump, Rob Neyer essentially made the point that Carlos is pretty damn good, but perhaps not as good as the ever-building hype had made him out to be. As in ROTO, Beltran's got alot riding on the fact that he's a CF, and an above-average defensive player at a key position. I guess my ultimate point is this... who knows.

The Royals negative PR machine has essentially done their damnedest to destroy their bargaining power, a la Omar Minaya's terrible handling of Vlad Guerrero at the 2002 Winter meetings. When you spend 3 freakin years bitching about how in 3 years you won't be able to keep someone, eventually people take you at your word and offer you garbage for your jewel. When the ROyals went through this the first time, with Damon and Dye, the point was made over and over that "the Royals must get SOMETHING for these guys". Fair enough, but at the same time, at some point don't you have to attempt to have a good team? When Carlos is traded the 2004 edition of the ROyals will be worse. The 2005 edition of the team will also, quite likely, be worse. As pollyanna as this sounds, emotionally, competitively and financially, I think its at least debateable as to if he should even be traded. This team has a difficult time drawing fans, and if they make such a move, coupled with even worse play, the attendence effect could be noticable. Plus, and I don't mean this as a slam at Allard, but honestly, the success or failure of any trade is anyone's guess, and with injuries, age and other trades, no one really has any idea if whatever B prospects we get will ever help this team win.


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